

<br>
<h2>
    <u>Your task:</u>
</h2>
<div style="padding-left: 30px;">
    <br>
    In this  study, <b>your task is to forecast the end-of-year earnings of a fictional firm</b> for the year 2024, based on the firm’s earnings over the previous two years.
    <ul>
    <li>
        The 2024 earnings of the firm are partly predictable. 
        Specifically, the change in the firm’s earnings from 2023 to 2024 is determined by two components:
        <ul>
            <li>
                A <b>predictable change</b> equal to the previous change in the firm’s earnings from 2022 to 2023.
            </li>
            <li>
                An <b>unpredictable change</b> that will be a random draw from the numbers 
                <center>
                    (-8, -7, -6, -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8),
                </center>
                where each number is <b>equally likely to be drawn.</b>
            </li>
        </ul>
    </li>
    <li>
        The relative importance of these two components is given by the predictability level  P, a fraction between 0 and 1. In particular, the earnings change is given by the formula
        <center>
            <div class="formula">
                2024 earnings – 2023 earnings  = 
                    <br>
                    <b>P</b> &#x2715; (2023 earnings – 2022 earnings) +  (1 – <b>P</b>) &#x2715; (Unpredictable change).
            </div>
        </center>
    </li>
    <li>
        If you know the change in the firm’s earnings from 2023 to 2024, the earnings of the firm in 2024 is simply the firm’s earnings in 2023 plus that change in earnings. 
    </li>
    <li>
        In each round, you will be given a different firm to forecast. You will be told the earnings of that firm over the last two years, as well as the predictability level P. Your task is to <b>forecast the earnings of the firm in 2024.</b>
    </li>
    <li>
        In total, you will complete 11 rounds of this task. Across these rounds, the predictability level P will vary. These rounds are completely independent from one another. If one of the rounds of this task is selected to determine your bonus, only your decision in this one round will determine your bonus.
    </li>
    </ul>
</div>
<br>
    <hr>
    <br>
<h2>
        <u>Your bonus payment:</u>
</h2>
<div style="padding-left: 30px;">
    <br>
    Your decisions may affect your bonus payment. For each round, there will be a statistically correct forecast of the earnings of the firm. 
    If a decision in this part is selected for payment, you will receive $10 if your answer is within +/- $1 of the statistically correct forecast, and nothing otherwise. 
</div>
<div style="width: 100%; text-align: center; margin-top: 10px" class="instr_button_div">
    <button id="button_instr" class="revealbutton instr_button"><span style="color:#fff;">Next</span></button>
</div>
<div class="hidding_div" style="display: none;">
    <br>
    <hr>
 <br>
<h2>
    <u>Example:</u>
</h2>
<br>
<center>
    <img class="example_image" style="margin: 5px; border: 2px solid lightgray; width: 75%;" alt="Example image of the decision screen (input later)" src="https://github.com/sebre97/Attenuation/blob/main/Instructions/figures/instr_figures/FOR.png?raw=true">
</center>
<div style="padding-left: 30px;">
    <br>
    <ul>
        <li>
            In this example, the predictability level is 0.8, and the firm’s earnings over the last two years (2022 and 2023) are $109 and $127, respectively. 
        </li>
        <li>
            You would give your forecast of the 2024 earnings of this firm, based on the information provided.
        </li>
    </ul>
 
</div>

<br>
<hr>
<br>    
<h2>
   <u>Your certainty:</u>
</h2>
<div style="padding-left: 30px;">
   <br>
   In each round, we will ask you two questions:
    <br>
   <ul>
       <li>
        You will forecast the 2024 earnings of the firm. 
    </li>
       <li>
        We will ask you <b>how certain</b> you are about your forecast. Specifically, we are interested in how likely you think it is (in percentage terms) that your forecast is actually the statistically correct forecast.
    </li>
   </ul>
</div>
</div>
